For Better Performance Please Use Chrome or Firefox Web Browser

Karamouz, M., Noori, N., Moridi, A. and Ahmadi, A., (2011) Evaluation of floodplain variability considering impacts of climate change, Hydrological Processes, 25, 90–103, doi: 10.1002/hyp.7822.

Karamouz, M., Noori, N., Moridi, A. and Ahmadi, A., (2011) Evaluation of floodplain variability considering impacts of climate change, Hydrological Processes, 25, 90–103, doi: 10.1002/hyp.7822.

Author Information

1Polytechnic Institute of NYU, Brooklyn, NY, USA

2School of Civil Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

3School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University (Tehran Polytechnic), Tehran, Iran

4Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran

 

Publication History

  1. Issue published online: 23 DEC 2010
  2. Article first published online: 24 AUG 2010
  3. Manuscript Accepted: 14 JUN 2010
  4. Manuscript Received: 18 SEP 2009

Abstract

In this study, an approach is presented for handling hydraulic uncertainties in the prediction of floodplain. Different factors affect river flood characteristics. Furthermore, the high changeability of flooding conditions leads to high variability of the inundation. River morphology is one of the most effective factors in river flood characteristics. This factor is influenced by sedimentation and erosion in the river cross sections, which affects the discharge variation. The depth and the width of the river cross section lead to an increase or decrease in the river flow path. This results in changes in the extent of the floodplain based on the generated rainfall. The inundated region boundaries are determined by utilizing the mean first-order second-moment analysis. The proposed method is applied to the Kajoo River in the south-eastern part of Iran. Determination of floodplain uncertainty is a damage-reduction policy in this region. Also, it is useful to prepare the necessary activities for overcoming the flood hazards. Climate change is the second effective factor on the floodplain uncertainties. Climate change affects the magnitude, extent and depth of inundation and it may intensify the flood problem. Therefore, the future rainfall pattern of the study area under climate change is simulated to evaluate its impacts on the river flow characteristic. Subsequently, a hydraulic routing model is used to determine floodplain. Finally, the copula function is used to estimate the joint probability of the changes in the inundation area due to changes in river morphology and the rainfall changes due to impacts of climate change. Results show that the uncertainties of the extent of floodplain are affected by climate change and river morphology, leading to noticeable changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods. Evaluating these impacts and estimating corresponding river discharges will help in the study of river dynamics, and will also contribute towards devising effective mitigation and management strategies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hydrological Processes

 

Link To Online Resource:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.7822/abstract

 

Journal Papers
Month/Season: 
January
Year: 
2011